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Steel market price forecast on October 16

Oct 16,2020  Steel Knowledge.

Rebar: On October 15, the average price of 20mm grade 3 rebar in 25 major cities across the country was 3,810 yuan/ton, down by 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The snails continued to fluctuate and weaken in the early trading yesterday, and the price of construction steel in most areas in the country fell slightly this morning. From the perspective of transactions, the market buys up and does not buy down, and most businesses report that transactions are relatively weak. On the news, Mysteel data shows that domestic construction steel production declined slightly this week, while steel mills and market inventories both declined, indicating that apparent consumption of construction steel has improved this week. At present, although the demand for downstream steel has improved recently, considering that the weakening of futures affects the market mentality, coupled with the market’s resistance to high-priced resources, it is expected that domestic construction steel prices may continue to weaken in the short term.

Hot-rolled coil: On October 15, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in 24 major cities across the country was 3,920 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Yesterday, the black commodity futures market fluctuated down, and the spot market mentality was relatively pessimistic. Merchants' quotations fell slightly in the morning. At present, downstream end users are not enthusiastic about purchasing and speculative demand is also waiting to see. Market transactions are unlikely to improve significantly. Prices in some cities fell again in the afternoon. The short-term market demand is still weak, merchants still focus on shipments, and market prices are still on a downward trend. It is expected that today's hot-rolled coil prices will remain weak and fluctuating.

Cold rolled coil: On October 15, the average price of 1.0mm cold coil in 24 major cities across the country was 4,714 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Yesterday, the hot coil spot continued to fall from a high level, and the market sentiment was slightly pessimistic. From a fundamental point of view, the supply dropped slightly, and the downward trend of factory warehouses and community warehouses continued unchanged; the downstream demand for cold rolling was acceptable, with a weekly demand of 823,100 tons, an increase of 102,500 tons on a weekly basis. Judging from the feedback from the market, cold-rolled resources are currently slightly tight. Although the spread between cold and hot prices is relatively large, it is difficult for cold-rolled prices to fall sharply. On the whole, today's domestic cold rolled prices are weak and stable.

Plate: On October 15th, the average price of 20mm common plates in 24 major cities across the country was 3977 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Yesterday's cargo volatility and weak operation, the spot market prices fell slightly, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was insufficient, and the overall market trading atmosphere was light. In terms of resources, it is understood that in order to reduce risks, some traders have to go to the warehouse before the holiday. The current replenishment is insufficient and the inventory is at a normal low level, but the shortage of low alloy resources has eased. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic plate market prices may fluctuate weakly today.

Imported ore: On October 15, the imported iron ore market continued to fall. Qingdao Port 61.5% Australian PB fines reported 862 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; 62.5% Australian PB lump ore reported 948 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

Coke: On October 15, the coke market was on the strong side. On the supply side, coke companies are actively producing under high profits, orders are tight, and there is basically no inventory in the plant; on demand, downstream steel plants are operating at a high level, steel prices may enter a narrow range, steel companies’ coke procurement rhythm is good, and coke demand is not decreasing. Steel mills still have plans for replenishment; in ports, the spot market is strong, but prices are still upside down, the situation in the port is weak, and port inventory has dropped slightly. On the whole, the coke market is currently operating stably.

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